Today is Memorial Day. It's the day we collectively remember the men and women who died to protect our right to vote in the United States. So, I wanted to know what their vote was worth comparatively?
Electoral Vote Value by State (Approximate Relative Presidential Vote Power)
This ranking estimates the relative value of a presidential
vote in each state under the Electoral College.
Method used:
- Each
state's electoral votes were compared to its population.
- National
average = 1.00.
- A
state with a score of 2.00 means a presidential vote there has roughly
twice the Electoral College weight of the national average.
- Based
primarily on the 2020 Census apportionment used in the 2024 election.
Because every state automatically receives two Senate-based
electors regardless of population, smaller states receive disproportionately
higher Electoral College weight.
Ranked from Highest Vote Value to Lowest
|
Rank |
State |
Approximate Relative Vote Value |
|
1 |
Wyoming |
3.66 |
|
2 |
Vermont |
3.11 |
|
3 |
Alaska |
3.06 |
|
4 |
North Dakota |
3.02 |
|
5 |
South Dakota |
2.97 |
|
6 |
Delaware |
2.63 |
|
7 |
Rhode Island |
2.55 |
|
8 |
Montana |
2.52 |
|
9 |
Maine |
2.48 |
|
10 |
New Hampshire |
2.36 |
|
11 |
Hawaii |
2.21 |
|
12 |
West Virginia |
2.17 |
|
13 |
Nebraska |
2.12 |
|
14 |
New Mexico |
2.07 |
|
15 |
Idaho |
2.04 |
|
16 |
Kansas |
1.95 |
|
17 |
Arkansas |
1.92 |
|
18 |
Mississippi |
1.90 |
|
19 |
Iowa |
1.89 |
|
20 |
Nevada |
1.84 |
|
21 |
Utah |
1.81 |
|
22 |
Connecticut |
1.78 |
|
23 |
Oklahoma |
1.76 |
|
24 |
Oregon |
1.73 |
|
25 |
Kentucky |
1.70 |
|
26 |
Louisiana |
1.69 |
|
27 |
Alabama |
1.67 |
|
28 |
South Carolina |
1.66 |
|
29 |
Minnesota |
1.62 |
|
30 |
Colorado |
1.60 |
|
31 |
Wisconsin |
1.58 |
|
32 |
Missouri |
1.57 |
|
33 |
Maryland |
1.55 |
|
34 |
Tennessee |
1.53 |
|
35 |
Indiana |
1.50 |
|
36 |
Arizona |
1.47 |
|
37 |
Massachusetts |
1.46 |
|
38 |
Virginia |
1.43 |
|
39 |
New Jersey |
1.39 |
|
40 |
Washington |
1.35 |
|
41 |
Michigan |
1.30 |
|
42 |
North Carolina |
1.28 |
|
43 |
Georgia |
1.25 |
|
44 |
Ohio |
1.23 |
|
45 |
Illinois |
1.16 |
|
46 |
Pennsylvania |
1.14 |
|
47 |
New York |
1.08 |
|
48 |
California |
0.96 |
|
49 |
Florida |
0.92 |
|
50 |
Texas |
0.88 |
Comparison of the Three Highest-Value States vs. the
Three Lowest-Value States by Race
Three Highest-Value States
1. Wyoming
- White
(non-Hispanic): ~81%
- Hispanic/Latino:
~10%
- Native
American: ~3%
- Black:
~1%
- Asian:
~1%
2. Vermont
- White
(non-Hispanic): ~89%
- Hispanic/Latino:
~2%
- Black:
~1.5%
- Asian:
~2%
- Multiracial/Other:
small percentages
3. Alaska
- White
(non-Hispanic): ~57%
- Alaska
Native/Native American: ~15%
- Asian:
~7%
- Hispanic/Latino:
~7%
- Black:
~3%
- Multiracial:
significant share
Combined Characteristics of Highest-Value States
- Much
smaller populations
- More
rural overall
- Significantly
whiter than the national average overall
- Alaska
is the exception because of its large Indigenous population
- Very
small Black populations compared to large states
Three Lowest-Value States
48. California
- Hispanic/Latino:
~40%
- White
(non-Hispanic): ~35%
- Asian:
~15%
- Black:
~5%
- Multiracial/Other:
growing share
49. Florida
- White
(non-Hispanic): ~51%
- Hispanic/Latino:
~27%
- Black:
~15%
- Asian:
~3%
50. Texas
- Hispanic/Latino:
~40%
- White
(non-Hispanic): ~39%
- Black:
~12%
- Asian:
~5%
Combined Characteristics of Lowest-Value States
- Very
large populations
- More
urban and suburban
- Far
more racially diverse
- Much
larger Hispanic/Latino populations
- Larger
Black and Asian populations than the highest-value states
Key Observation
The Electoral College structurally increases the relative
voting power of smaller states because every state receives two Senate-based
electors regardless of population.
As a result:
- Smaller,
whiter, more rural states generally receive greater Electoral College
weight per voter.
- Larger,
more racially diverse states generally receive less Electoral College
weight per voter.
Although this does not mean individual votes are ignored in the large
states, it does mean that mathematically a presidential vote cast in a very small state such
as Wyoming carries substantially more Electoral College influence than a vote
cast in Texas, Florida, or California.
A Wyoming presidential vote is worth roughly:
- 4
times a Texas presidential vote
- 3.8
times a Florida presidential vote
- 3.6
times a California presidential vote
Sources consulted include the U.S. Census, National Archives
Electoral College allocation data, and population-to-elector analyses.
(usafacts.org)
I calculated and ranked the approximate relative value of a
presidential vote in all 50 states under the Electoral College system, then
compared the racial demographics of the three highest-value states and the
three lowest-value states.
I'm not a statistician. I asked the questions. ChatGPT did all the calculations.
